[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 28 10:24:11 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the previous 24 hours.
These conditions are expected to continue throughout the next
24 hours. Although currently quiet, region 0841 (N12E40) has
been increasing in size over the last few days and may become
more active as it passes across the visible disk. A large coronal
hole extending from the solar high latitudes to the equator has
moved into geoeffective position resulting in increased solar
wind speeds at Earth. As a result, the solar wind has been steadily
increasing in speed since 0900UT and is currently 640km/s and
still increasing. Intermittent strong southward turnings of the
IMF have resulted in enhanced merging and disturbances in the
geomagnetic field, particularly at mid-high latitudes. The Earth
is expected to remain in the coronal hole wind stream for the
next 48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Unsettled with isolated
active-minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 15 2212 4443
Darwin 15 2212 4443
Learmonth 21 3112 4554
Culgoora 12 2112 3443
Canberra 13 2212 3443
Hobart 13 2212 3443
Casey(Ant) 23 3333 4454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Culgoora 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 55 (Unsettled)
Hobart 79 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1010 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 20 active
29 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
30 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field responded to the combined effects
of a coronal hole wind stream currently passing the Earth and
intermittent periods of strongly southward IMF resulting in active-
minor storm intervals late in the UT day. This activity is expected
to continue over the next 24-48 hours - particularly in the high
latitude regions - until the coronal hole wind stream wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Observed isolated cases of sporadic E at low and high
latitudes and spread F observed at high latitudes. Expect possible
minor degradation in HF propagation over the next 24-48 hours
due to enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 22 near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 14 about 10% below predicted monthly values
30 Dec 18 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor degradation in HF propagation conditions over
the next 24-48 hours possible due to enhanced geomagnetic activity
as the Earth pases through a high speed coronal hole wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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