[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec:  93/38

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Dec             28 Dec             29 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: None. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1112 2223
      Darwin               5   1112 2223
      Learmonth            5   1002 2233
      Culgoora             4   0012 2222
      Canberra             4   0112 2222
      Hobart               5   0111 3222
      Casey(Ant)          11   3332 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1322 3100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
28 Dec    16    active 
29 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Today, 27 December, expect quiet to unsettled levels 
of activity at low and mid latitudes with unsettled to active 
levels of activity at high latitudes mainly due to a southerly 
Bz component in the interplanetary magnetic field. Earily tomorrow, 
28 December, expect unsettle to active levels of activity in 
the geomagnetic field with isolated cases of minor storm activity 
at high latitudes due to coronal hole high speed wind stream 
moving into geoeffective position. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Observed isolated cases of sporadic E at low and high 
latitudes and spread F observed at high latitudes. Expect possible 
minor degradation in HF propagation over the next several days 
due to the present southerly Bz component in the interplanetary 
magnetic field and the Earth entering a coronal hole high speed 
wind stream on 28 December. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Dec    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Dec    35    near predicted monthly values 
28 Dec    35    near predicted monthly values 
29 Dec    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: None. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    42000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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