[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 29 10:55:28 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the previous 24 hours. Region
0843 produced the only significant flaring of the period, a B9.2
at 1125UT and a C1.2 at 2237UT. A solar filament was observed
to lift from S10E41 at 0220UT and most likely produced the eastward
directed CME observed in SOHO LASCO imagery at ~0400UT. This CME is
not expected to significantly impact the Earth. Solar activity is
expected to remain low over the next 24 hours. The Earth continues
to pass through a high speed coronal hole wind stream with wind
speeds remaining at ~680km/s. IMF Bz has remained close to 0nT
limiting the geomagnetic disturbance. The Earth is expected to
remain in the coronal hole wind stream for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Unsettled with isolated minor
storm periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 3323 3233
Darwin 12 3323 3233
Learmonth 13 3223 4233
Culgoora 11 3323 3223
Canberra 13 3333 3233
Hobart 12 3333 3223
Casey(Ant) 19 4--4 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Learmonth 46 (Unsettled)
Culgoora 92 (Minor storm)
Canberra 177 (Severe storm)
Hobart 152 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 18 3001 2554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
30 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally at unsettled levels
over the past 24 hours, except for the high latitude regions
which experienced intervals of minor storm activity. The solar
wind remains elevated and generally unsettled geomagnetic conditions
are expected to continue for the next 24-48 hours. Intervals
of minor storm activity are likely in the high latitude regions,
particularly if there is a significant southward turning of the
IMF.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic E observed overnight in the mid-low
latitudes, and intervals of spread F observed at high latitudes.
Minor degradation in HF propagation possible over the next 24-48
hours due to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 29 Near predicted monthly values in northern regions/minor
depressions possible in the southern regions.
30 Dec 30 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec 30 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements and depressions observed in the
Northern Australia and PNG region over the past 24 hours with
periods of strong sporadic E overnight. Minor depressions observed
in the NZ and Antarctic region in response to enhanced geomagnetic
activity. These conditions are expected to continue over the
next 24-48 hours as the Earth passes through a coronal hole wind
stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 45600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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