[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Dec             07 Dec             08 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. No significant 
flares were recorded. Region 826 has decreased further in size 
and complexity over the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected 
to be low to very low today. The shock in the solar wind expected 
as a result of CME activity on 02 Dec did not eventuate. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2212 0111
      Darwin               3   2211 0112
      Learmonth            4   2212 1111
      Culgoora             1   1101 0011
      Canberra             2   2201 0011
      Hobart               2   1111 0011
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-23 1120
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1011 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Dec     6    Quiet 
07 Dec     6    Quiet 
08 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally quiet at mid-low 
latitudes over the UT day and unsettled at high latitudes. CME 
activity on 01 Dec and 02 Dec did not impact the Earth. Expect 
quiet geomagnetic conditions to prevail for the next 24-48 hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal over the UT day. Strong sporadic 
E was observed overnight, particularly in the equatorial and 
sub-equatorial latitudes. These conditions are expected to continue 
for the next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Dec    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Dec    17    near predicted monthly values 
07 Dec    17    near predicted monthly values 
08 Dec    16    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions prevailed in the Australian region 
over the UT day. Strong sporadic E was observed overnight, 
particularly in the northern Australia and PNG region. Normal HF 
conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 620 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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