[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Dec             08 Dec             09 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. No significant 
flares were recorded in GOES Xrays. Solar activity is expected 
to continue at very low levels today. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 822 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 8 Dec. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1222 2111
      Darwin               3   1111 2111
      Learmonth            5   1222 2111
      Culgoora             3   1211 1111
      Canberra             7   2--- ---1
      Hobart               5   1222 2111
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Dec     5    Quiet 
08 Dec     6    Quiet 
09 Dec     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally quiet at all latitudes 
over the UT day. Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to prevail 
for the next 24 hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal over the UT day. These conditions 
are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Dec    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Dec    17    near predicted monthly values 
08 Dec    16    near predicted monthly values 
09 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions prevailed in the Australian region 
over the UT day. The strong sporadic E that has occurred overnight 
for the previous two days was not evident last night. Normal 
HF conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 486 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    34500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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