[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Dec             06 Dec             07 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. Active region 
826 produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.1 at 0945UT. 
This region appears to have decreased in size and complexity 
over the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be low 
on 05 Dec although there remains the possibility of an isolated 
M-class flare from AR826. The solar wind has returned to pre-coronal 
hole speeds. Shocks from the CMEs which occurred on 02 Dec are 
expected to arrive early today and may cause increased magnetic 
activity. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2111 3122
      Darwin               5   2111 3122
      Learmonth            7   2112 3222
      Culgoora             4   1011 3112
      Canberra             5   1121 3122
      Hobart               6   1122 3122
      Casey(Ant)          13   33-- 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   4212 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
06 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
07 Dec     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally quiet at mid-low 
latitudes over the UT day, with active periods at high latitudes, 
in response to a waning high speed coronal hole wind stream. 
The coronal hole wind stream has now passed. CME activity on 
01 Dec and 02 Dec is likely to impact the Earth early on 05 Dec, 
which may result in an increase in magnetic activity levels at 
that time. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions were near normal over the UT day for most 
latitudes. These conditions are expected to continue over the 
next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Dec    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
06 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
07 Dec    24    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions in the Australian region over 
the UT day, expected to continue. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 699 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   192000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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