[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 4 10:30:06 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. Active region
826 was relatively quiet compared to recent, producing only minor
flares, the largest of which was a C3.6 at 0536UT. The largest
flare of the period was produced by newly numbered region 0830,
a C5.3 at 0737UT. Solar region 826 (S03W10) appears to have decreased
in size and complexity over the last 24 hours, however it retains
significant flare potential and is capable of producing isolated
M-class flares. AR0828 (S05E15) and AR0830 (N14E64) appear to
have increased in complexity and show some flare potential. The
high speed coronal hole wind stream that the Earth has been passing
through over the last few days is showing signs of waning. Current
solar wind speeds are around 600km/s. IMF Bz continues to oscillate
about 0nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 3213 3232
Darwin 9 3212 3233
Learmonth 12 3213 4232
Culgoora 9 3212 3232
Canberra 12 3323 3232
Hobart 12 3323 3232
Casey(Ant) 19 4--4 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 50 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3433 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 12 Unsettled
05 Dec 18 active
06 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally unsettled at mid-low
latitudes over the UT day, with active to minor storm periods
at high latitudes, in response to a high speed coronal hole wind
stream. The coronal hole wind stream is showing signs of waning,
and magnetic activity is likely to settle over the next 24 hours.
CME activity on 01 Dec and 02 Dec is likely to impact the Earth
late on 04 Dec or early 05 Dec, which may result in a sudden
increase in magnetic activity levels at that time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were near normal over the UT day for most
latitudes. Some depressions were experienced in the local morning
hours at low latitudes and periods of strong sporadic E occurred
at mid latitudes over the local night. These conditions are expected
to continue over the next 24 hours. There remains potential for
short wave fadeouts over the next 24 hours due to the active
regions currently on the solar disk.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local morning,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 28 near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 16 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed,
particularly at mid and higher latitudes.
06 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions in the Australian region over
the UT day, expected to continue. Some depressions possible in
the Northern Australia region early in the local day. Short wave
fadeouts possible over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 696 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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