[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 4 10:30:06 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Dec             05 Dec             06 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. Active region 
826 was relatively quiet compared to recent, producing only minor 
flares, the largest of which was a C3.6 at 0536UT. The largest 
flare of the period was produced by newly numbered region 0830, 
a C5.3 at 0737UT. Solar region 826 (S03W10) appears to have decreased 
in size and complexity over the last 24 hours, however it retains 
significant flare potential and is capable of producing isolated 
M-class flares. AR0828 (S05E15) and AR0830 (N14E64) appear to 
have increased in complexity and show some flare potential. The 
high speed coronal hole wind stream that the Earth has been passing 
through over the last few days is showing signs of waning. Current 
solar wind speeds are around 600km/s. IMF Bz continues to oscillate 
about 0nT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3213 3232
      Darwin               9   3212 3233
      Learmonth           12   3213 4232
      Culgoora             9   3212 3232
      Canberra            12   3323 3232
      Hobart              12   3323 3232
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              50   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3433 2132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Dec    12    Unsettled 
05 Dec    18    active 
06 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally unsettled at mid-low 
latitudes over the UT day, with active to minor storm periods 
at high latitudes, in response to a high speed coronal hole wind 
stream. The coronal hole wind stream is showing signs of waning, 
and magnetic activity is likely to settle over the next 24 hours. 
CME activity on 01 Dec and 02 Dec is likely to impact the Earth 
late on 04 Dec or early 05 Dec, which may result in a sudden 
increase in magnetic activity levels at that time. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were near normal over the UT day for most 
latitudes. Some depressions were experienced in the local morning 
hours at low latitudes and periods of strong sporadic E occurred 
at mid latitudes over the local night. These conditions are expected 
to continue over the next 24 hours. There remains potential for 
short wave fadeouts over the next 24 hours due to the active 
regions currently on the solar disk. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Dec    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local morning,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Dec    28    near predicted monthly values 
05 Dec    16    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed, 
                particularly at mid and higher latitudes. 
06 Dec    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions in the Australian region over 
the UT day, expected to continue. Some depressions possible in 
the Northern Australia region early in the local day. Short wave 
fadeouts possible over the next 24 hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 696 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   225000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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