[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 30 09:52:26 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low-moderate over the previous
24 hours. Region 803 produced only three B class flares. This
region appears to be stable or declining in complexity suggesting
a somewhat reduced chance for producing another M-class flare.
New region AR806 produced B5.6 and C1.3 flares so the prognosis
remains for low to moderate activity. A CME was observed from
1054-1718UT but consensus appears to be that it is a backside
event not associated with AR806 or 803 and will not be geoeffective.
A southern polar coronal hole that has extended to equatorial
solar latitudes is currently passing the central meridian and
may result in elevated solar wind speeds in 1-2 days time. The
Solar wind at the L1 point measured by the ACE spaceraft does
not yet appear affected and speeds ranged from 380-420km/sec
with a jump at ~07UT associated with a northwards Bz turning.
Solar wind pressure and temperatures look nominal. An extended
Bz southwards period occurred ~01-06UT causing enhanced merging
with the geomagnetic field.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 3221 1101
Learmonth 3 3120 0001
Culgoora 7 4221 1111
Canberra 3 2221 000-
Hobart 4 2221 1100
Casey(Ant) 6 3222 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2201 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug 11 Unsettled
01 Sep 18 active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field has been quiet over the past 24
hours, conditions which are expected to continue over the next
day. The field may then be unsettled due to the onset of a high
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. An exception to
the quiet conditions was localised active conditions observed
early in the UT day at auroral latitudes due to IMF Bz southwards
01-06UT with enhanced merging to the geomagnetic field driving
polar cap convection.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions are expected to be normal
over the next 24 hours. There remains a slight chance of SWF
for regions in the sunlit hemisphere, due to solar regions AR803
and AR806.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 40 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
31 Aug 42 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
01 Sep 49 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to slightly
enhanced over the next 24 hrs although potential remains for
fadeouts due to M-class flares from solar regions AR803 and AR806.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 69100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list