[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    1030UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Aug             30 Aug             31 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low-moderate over the previous 
24 hours. Region 803 produced a short-duration M1.6-class flare 
at 1028Z. This region has grown slightly in size and remains 
a beta-gamma magnetic class sunspot group with the potential 
for producing another isolated M-class flare. Otherwise the sun 
has remained quiet. A weak coronal hole is currently passing 
the central meridian and may result in elevated solar wind speeds 
in 2-3 days time, however its impact on geomagnetic conditions 
is expected to be minor. Solar wind speed is currently ~400km/s. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1212
      Learmonth            3   1111 0212
      Culgoora             4   1111 2212
      Canberra             1   1001 1101
      Hobart               4   1111 2212
      Casey(Ant)           7   2232 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   3122 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field has been quiet over the past 24 
hours, conditions which are expected to continue over the next 
2-3 days. Substorm activity is current on the nightside at high 
latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions are expected to be normal 
over the next 24 hours. There remains a slight chance of SWF 
for regions in the sunlit hemisphere, due to solar region AR803. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Aug    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Aug    35    near predicted monthly values / enhanced 10 to 
                20% in northern australian region. 
30 Aug    35    near predicted monthly values / enhanced 10 to 
                20% 
31 Aug    42    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal over the next 
24 hrs although potential remians for fadeouts due to M-class 
flares from solar region AR803. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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