[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2231 1111
      Learmonth            2   2211 0000
      Culgoora             5   2131 1111
      Canberra             5   2132 1001
      Hobart               5   2131 2111
      Casey(Ant)           8   3332 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             11   3442 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug    12    Unsettled 
29 Aug    11    Unsettled 
30 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Aug    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 537 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   121000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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