[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Aug             01 Sep             02 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the previous 24 hours. 
Region 806 may produce isolated c-class flares, otherwise no 
energetic flares expected. Solar activity is expected to remain 
low today and tomorrow. A southern polar coronal hole that has 
extended to equatorial solar latitudes may become geoeffective 
later today and result in an elevated solar wind. The ACE spaceraft 
recorded a bump in the solar wind at approximately 1800UT with 
a southward Bz component. The solar wind jumped to just over 
400km/s and slowly declined back to 340km/s over several hours 
with Bz component returning northward. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1121
      Learmonth            2   2000 0021
      Culgoora             3   1111 1122
      Canberra             1   1000 0020
      Hobart               3   1111 1121
      Casey(Ant)           3   1--- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   2421 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Sep    12    Unsettled 
02 Sep    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field has been quiet over the past 24 
hours, conditions which are expected to continue over most of 
the day. The field may then be unsettled due to the onset of 
a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions are expected to be normal 
over the next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Aug    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Aug    38    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
01 Sep    42    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Sep    42    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to slightly 
enhanced over the next 24 hrs. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    73400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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