[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Aug             23 Aug             24 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Region 798 produced a Small C-class X-ray flare in the 
previous 24 hours. Otherwise solar activity has been low. Region 
798 has increased in complexity and there remains chance of further 
flaring from this region. The tail end of a small eastward-directed 
CME was observed in SOHO LASCO imagery however it is not expected 
to be geoeffective. The SOHO EIT imagery shows a new active 
region recently rotated onto the eastern limb of the sun which 
has the possibilty of increasing solar activity over the next 
few days. The Earth entered a high speed coronal wind stream at 
1530 UTC which is expected to cause unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
over the next day. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2211 2311
      Learmonth            5   1211 2-21
      Culgoora             8   2121 2412
      Canberra             7   1111 2411
      Hobart               5   2111 2311
      Casey(Ant)           7   2321 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2110 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
23 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
24 Aug    16    active 
COMMENT: Unsettled conditions expected today as the Earth passes 
through a coronal hole wind stream, particularly in the high 
latitude regions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Aug    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Aug    29    near predicted monthly values 
23 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
24 Aug    29    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    74000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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