[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.6    0135UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M5.6    1731UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 157/111


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate-high over the previous 
24 hours. Region 798 produced two M-class flares, an M2.6 at 
0133Z and an M5.6 at 1727 UTC. Region 798 remains a beta-gamma 
region and has the potential for further strong flaring. Both 
M-class flares were associated with Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) 
with an Earthward-directed component and are expected to cause 
geomagnetic storms on the 24th and 25th. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2322 2212
      Learmonth            5   1222 2212
      Culgoora             7   2322 2212
      Canberra             7   2322 2212
      Hobart               7   2322 2212
      Casey(Ant)          11   2342 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1111 2422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Aug    30    Active to Minor storm 
25 Aug    45    Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 22 August and 
is current for interval 24-25 August. Quiet-Unsettled conditions 
expected today as the Earth continues to pass through a coronal 
hole wind stream. Active to minor storm conditions expected from 
the 24th to the 25th as a result of two Earthward-directed Coronal 
Mass Ejections which occurred over the previous 24 hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 08 2005 2100UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
25 Aug      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor
COMMENT: Short-wave fade occurred in the Australian region 0100 
- 0300 UTC. Potential for further SWF over the next 24 hours 
is moderate-high. A Polar Cap Absorption event is expected in 
the high latitude regions today in response to the solar proton 
event. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Aug    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
24 Aug    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
25 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 22 August 
and is current for interval 22-23 August (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    74700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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