[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 2111
      Learmonth            3   1211 1111
      Culgoora             3   1111 2111
      Canberra             5   2121 ----
      Hobart               3   1111 2111
      Casey(Ant)           5   2221 1121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2123 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug     3    Quiet 
22 Aug     4    Quiet 
23 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 537 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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