[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next 3 
days. No obvious events noted on GOES x-ray or SOHO LASCO imagery. 
Solar Wind returning to pre-coronal hole speeds, 450 km/s. Small 
isolated equatorial coronal hole is just west of the central 
meridian and may result in a slight solar wind increase in two 
days time. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 2222
      Learmonth            7   2221 2232
      Culgoora             7   2222 2222
      Canberra             7   2--- ----
      Hobart               7   2--- ----
      Casey(Ant)          10   3332 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             105   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2231 2213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected today. 
Mild increase in geomagentic activity possible in two to three 
days time due to wind stream from small coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condtions. Noted significant daytime 
enhancements at low latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Aug    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      isolated periods of degradation.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
11 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
12 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs expected to be near normal over next few days. 
Noted daytime enhancements at low latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 520 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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