[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 11 09:52:16 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next 2-3
days although SOHO LASCO EIT shows a possible new region rotating
onto the disk on the eastern limb. No obvious events noted on
GOES x-ray or SOHO LASCO imagery. Sustained period of southward
IMF observed at ACE location 0600-1400UT associated with slightly
increased solar wind speed that may be associated with the small
equatorial coronal hole westward of the central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 16 2234 5211
Learmonth 13 213- 5210
Culgoora 13 213- 5211
Canberra 25 3--5 5311
Hobart 17 23-4 5211
Casey(Ant) 9 2233 3111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3322 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 11 Unsettled
12 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Enhanced magnetic activity to minor storm levels observed
at low latitudes in Australian region overnight possibly due
to sustained period of southward IMF ranging from -5 to -10nT
from 0600-1400UT. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected
today with slightly enhanced activity at high latitudes possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condtions. Noted 15-40% daytime enhancement
at low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 39 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs expected to be near normal over next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(for IMF and solar wind details see sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_3d.html)
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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