[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Aug             10 Aug             11 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible in SOHO 
EIT284 imagery near the centre of the solar disk. A very minor 
increase in solar wind speed may be experienced in about 3 days 
time. The sun has been mostly quiet over the previous 24 hours 
and flare potential of regions on disk is currently low. Solar 
wind speed continues to decline from previously enhanced conditions 
due to coronal hole. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2121 2112
      Learmonth            4   2120 2112
      Culgoora             4   1121 2212
      Canberra             3   1021 2102
      Hobart               4   1121 2112
      Casey(Ant)           9   3331 2213
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18   3544 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected today. 
Mild increase in geomagentic activity possible in three to four 
days time due to wind stream from small coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Aug    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Aug    35    near predicted monthly values 
10 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs expected to be near normal over next few days. 
Brief 30% depression observed 0400UT at Darwin on 08 August. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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