[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug             09 Aug             10 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27
COMMENT: Two dissappearing solar filaments were noted over the 
past 24 hours. The first filament erupted around 22UT in region 
792. The second filament slowly faded in two stages, the first 
starting from 0300 to 0340UT, the second around 0500UT. Both 
sections were about 8 degrees in length. However, the Culgoora 
radiospectrograph showed no radio sweep signatures, implying 
that the filament material did not escape the Sun. LASCO imagery 
was not available at time of issue of this report. Isolated low 
level flares possible from solar region 792. The solar wind is 
currently elevated due to coronal hole wind stream effects which 
began yesterday, and is now slowly declining, with mildly southward 
IMF conditions. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 2232
      Learmonth           11   3333 2223
      Culgoora            10   3233 2222
      Canberra            12   3333 2232
      Hobart              11   3333 2222
      Casey(Ant)          19   4433 3243
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             34   5555 4343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug    14    Unsettled to active 
09 Aug    13    Unsettled 
10 Aug    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected today. 
Mild increase in geomagentic activity possible to continue today 
due to coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Aug    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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