[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 3 09:53:20 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.2 1831UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: The most significant event of the past UT day was a
relatively short-duration M4 level flare from AR794 at 1831UT.
A Type II radio sweep was reported at 1824UT with an estimated
shock velocity of 2528 km/s. A minor Forbush Decrease of 2% was
observed on the Mawson CosRay monitor at 02/21UT, indicating
a probable Earth-directed CME component. Region 794 also produced
a C2.9 level flare at 0746UT and may have been the source of
a C8.7 level flare at 1245UT. This region has shown growth over
the past 24 hours. Region 792 produced a C6.7 level flare at
2016UT and has shown some decay over the past UT day. A disappearing
solar filament was reported at N24W67 at 1048UT. Solar wind remains
slightly elevated but relatively steady at about 480 km/s. Solar
energetic ion fluxes decreased significantly after 10UT. Regions
792 and 794 have potential for further M-class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 2224 3211
Learmonth 8 2213 3211
Culgoora 9 2124 3212
Canberra 9 2214 3111
Hobart 9 2224 3111
Casey(Ant) 11 3--3 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 16 4134 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 6 Quiet
04 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
05 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Minor storm geomagnetic conditions have persisted at
polar latitudes into the first half of the UT day. At lower latitudes,
a brief active period was observed around 10UT. Otherwise
conditions were unsettled, tending to quiet later in the UT day.
Recent solar activity indicates a possible minor shock arrival,
possibly multiple arrivals, sometime on day two. Expect mostly
quiet conditions on day one, possible minor to major storm periods
mainly at high latitudes on day two, declining to unsettled conditions
on day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : Began at 2325UT 27/07, Ended at 1105UT 01/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions prevail at low to mid latitudes.
The proton event which had been in progress since 27/2325 ended
at 01/1105. Expect normal conditions at low to mid latitudes
with some continuing disturbance at high latitudes due to geomagnetic
activity associated with recent solar activity. Possible extended
periods of degradation at high latitudes on day two due to anticipated
minor geomagnetic shock arrival.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day, with localised
intervals of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 55 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Aug 40 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 55 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to mildly enhanced HF conditions observed
Equatorial/Aus regions. Periods of evening spread-F observed
S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. Minor daytime absorption persisting
at polar cap latitudes. Expect periods of degradation S Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions on day two due to geomagnetic activity associated with
an anticipated minor solar wind shock. Isolated radio fadeouts
possible during local day over the next week due to active sunspot
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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