[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 2 09:51:04 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**YELLOW** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1357UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Active region 794 produced an impulsive C5.8 level flare
at 1220UT. Region 792 produced a long duration M1 level flare
at 1350UT. The M1 flare was associated with a Type IV radio sweep.
An easterly-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery, first
visible after 1630UT. There may be a weak, earth-directed component
from this event. A weak shock passage in the solar wind was observed
at the ACE satellite platform after 05UT. Minor geomagnetic disturbance
was observed after 06UT. This was probably the earth-directed
component of the CME from the X1.3 flare observed on July 30.
The Proton Event which had been in progress since 27/2325 ended
at 01/1105UT. Further M-class flare activity appears likely from
AR792.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0604UT
on 01 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 2233 3222
Learmonth 11 2233 3312
Culgoora 9 2133 3222
Canberra 9 2133 3222
Hobart 12 3134 3222
Casey(Ant) 18 3344 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 2321 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 12 Unsettled
03 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 30 July and
is current for interval 1-2 August. A weak shock passage was
observed in the solar wind after 05UT. Minor geomagnetic storm
intervals were observed at high latitudes only from 06-12UT,
persisting at polar cusp latitudes. Otherwise geomagnetic conditions
were at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the UT day. Solar
wind speed increased to 600 km/s following the shock, with the
Bz component of the IMF exhibiting mild polarity fluctuations.
Solar wind parameters are expected to decline today, with mostly
quiet geomagnetic conditions exepcted on days two and three.
There may be a weak shock passage on day three from the M1 solar
flare observed today. This is likely to briefly affect high latitudes
only.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : Began at 2325UT 27/07, Ended at 1105UT 01/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions prevail at low to mid latitudes.
The proton event which had been in progress since 27/2325 ended
at 01/1105. Expect normal conditions at low to mid latitudes
with some continuing disturbance at high latitudes due to geomagnetic
activity associated with recent solar flare activity. Although
proton flux is now below threshold level, fluxes remain elevated
and mild absorption can be expected at high latitudes on day
one. Possible further disturbance affecting high latitude propagation
on day three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values, with extended
periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 55 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced HF conditions observed Equatorial/Aus
regions. Expect periods of degradation S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
on day one due to geomagnetic activity associated with an observed
minor solar wind shock. The proton event following recent flare
activity ended at 1105UT. Minor daytime absorption is expected
to continue in polar cap on day one. Possible further disturbance
in Antarctic regions on day three due to an anticipated mild
solar wind shock. Isolated radio fadeouts possible during local
day over the next week due to active sunspot region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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