[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 1 09:36:37 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**YELLOW** MAG:**RED** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1224UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Region 791 produced a C7 level flare at 0909, and Region
792 produced an M1 level flare at 1224. Both events were relatively
short-duration, and no Type II radio sweeps were reported. Solar
wind velocity continued its slow decline as the coronal hole
rotates out of geoeffective position. Solar wind parameters showed
a general increasing trend late in the UT day, which may be related
to recent flare/CME activity. The present proton event is still
in progress, with proton flux at 13 pfu at the time of report
issue. This event is expected to conclude today, unless sustained
by further solar activity. Further M to X class flare activity
appears likely from AR792.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
31/2120UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 2222 1113
Learmonth 4 2122 2103
Culgoora 4 1221 1113
Canberra 3 1221 1102
Hobart 4 1221 1113
Casey(Ant) 11 3-33 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 4443 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 25 Active
02 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 30 July and
is current for interval 1-2 August. Active intervals observed
at high latitudes in the first half of the UT day. Otherwise
generally quiet geomagnetic conditions observed. Solar wind parameters
are declining as the currently geoeffective coronal hole rotates
beyond the west limb. There was a generally increasing trend
in solar wind parameters late in the UT day, possibly associated
with recent solar flare activity, but this did not result in
significant geomagnetic activty. A glancing blow geomagnetic
shock is possible early on Aug 01 resulting from a CME associated
with major solar flare activity observed at 30/0630. Intervals
of minor to major storm conditions are possible on Aug 01, declining
to mostly unsettled on Aug 02.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 27 07 2005 2325UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions prevail at low to mid latitudes.
The current proton event is still in progress but is expected
to end today unless sustained by further solar flare activity.
Expect continuing increased daytime absorption and periods of
degradation at high latitudes. A possible geomagnetic shock on
day one may cause periods of disturbance mainly at high latitudes
on days one and two.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced HF conditions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Expect periods of degradation S Aus/NZ regions on
days one and two due to geomagnetic activity associated with
an anticipated minor solar wind shock. Proton event following
recent flare activity is still in progress, but is expected to
end today unless sustained by further solar flare activity. Isolated
radio fadeouts possible during local day over the next week due
to active sunspot region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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