[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.4    0506UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Aug             05 Aug             06 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: The M3 solar xray event was associated with a Type II 
radio sweep observed on the Culgoora Spectrograph. Subsequent 
viewing of the NASA/ESA SOHO LASCO instrument imagery showed only 
minor eastward directed coronal mass ejection activity. This 
event is considered not geoeffective. The ACE satellite solar 
wind data indicates solar wind speeds at around 450km/sec, with 
the north-soth component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
mildly southward over the UT day. Isolated flaring may occur 
from region 794. Also, SOHO EIT 284 imagery shows a south polar 
extension coronal hole which will probably cause mild to moderate 
increase in wind speeds 06-07 August. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2321 1222
      Learmonth            6   2320 1221
      Culgoora             5   2221 1222
      Canberra             5   2220 1222
      Hobart               7   2321 1222
      Casey(Ant)          12   3333 2232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   3323 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Aug    10    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Aug    10    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Aug    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. Mild 
increase in geomagentic activity expected due to coronal hole 
wind stream 06-07 Aug. Recent coronal mass ejection on 03 Aug 
not expected to induce activity. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condtions. Mild degradation possible 
at high latitudes 06-07 Aug. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Aug    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values chance for mild 
                depression. 
COMMENT: Mild depression possible southern Aus/NZ region 06-07 
Aug. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 487 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    90800 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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