[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 22 09:02:54 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased from 500 to 400km/sec. The
north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field was
mostly northward over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 1111 0100
Learmonth 3 1111 1110
Culgoora 0 1100 0000
Canberra 1 1100 0100
Hobart 1 1110 0100
Casey(Ant) 6 2-32 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 21 2544 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 14 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
23 Apr 12 Unsettled
24 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Chancw for isolated active periods, with a general decline
to quiet conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 30 near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 30 near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 224000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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