[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 05
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 23 09:55:25 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1415UT
on 22 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 2210 3221
Learmonth 6 2210 3121
Culgoora 3 2100 2121
Canberra 5 1200 3222
Hobart 5 1110 3221
Casey(Ant) 9 2331 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2011 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 18 active
24 Apr 19 active
25 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
24 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 15 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
25 Apr 15 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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