[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed varied between 400 and 500km/sec, due 
to a solar coronal hole. The north south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated southward 10 to 20nT 
00-07 UT. No solar proton flux enhancement was observed following 
yesterdays weak parallel ribbon flare. The coronal mass ejection 
associated with this event was biased eastward and is presumed non 
geoeffecive. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 20 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   2434 4221
      Learmonth           16   2434 4222
      Culgoora            12   2323 4221
      Canberra            19   2434 5221
      Hobart              19   2434 5221
      Casey(Ant)          20   3544 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2241 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr    12    Unsettled 
22 Apr    14    Mostly unsettled, active periods possible. 
23 Apr    13    Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods. 
COMMENT: Active conditions observed overnight in association 
with southward IMF conditions. 27 day activity patterns suggest 
futher unsettled conditions next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildy degraded conditions at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Apr    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to Near predicted monthly values 
      over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr    35    near predicted monthly values/enhanced 10 to 15%. 
22 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly good. Mild 
degradations in HF comms quality may be experienced at times 
during local night hours southern Aus/NZ region, due to mild 
geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 354 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    49400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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