[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 20 09:53:40 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low during the last
24 hours. An interesting high B-class flare was observed
around S12E56 near the region 755 at 2150UT today. The flare
was associated to a Type II radio sweep and a partial halo
CME with shock speed between 1000 and 1300 km/s. The flare
seems to have originated from two parallel ribbons, which
normally results in a proton event. But the X-ray flux level
of the flare has been quite low. So a proton event may eventuate
in the next 24 hours but it is not very clear at this stage due
to the low X-ray flux of the flare. Solar wind speed decreased
from 370 to 320 km/s by 2000UT today and then rose to 400 km/s by
the time of this report. This rise may have been caused by
the anticipated coronal hole effect. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to
the normal value for most of the time today. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low to low levels during the
next three days. The effect of another coronal hole, that is
taking a geoeffective position, may further strengthen the
solar wind stream from 22 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 1221 2112
Learmonth 5 1221 2222
Culgoora 4 1121 2112
Canberra 5 1231 2102
Hobart 4 1221 2102
Casey(Ant) 7 2232 2211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 1321 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
21 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
22 Apr 16 Mostly unsettled, extended active periods possible.
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a coronal hole the geomagnetic activity may
rise from quiet to unsettled levels with possibility of
active periods during the next three days. Relatively
longer active periods may be possible on day three of
this period due to another coronal hole taking geoeffective
position around that time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event. (Caution: A proton event may be observed
in the next 24 hours from a parallel ribbon flare. But the flare
X-ray flux being low, it is not very clear at this stage if the
proton event will actually eventuate or not.)
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at low and mid latitude locations during the next two days.
However, minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions may
be observed on high latitudes during the next three days and
on some mid-latitude locations on the third day of this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
21 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
22 Apr 23 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most northern Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 51000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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