[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 19 09:26:56 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr:  81/22

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Apr             20 Apr             21 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low during the last 
24 hours. Only a few low level B-class flares were observed 
during this period. The solar wind speed remained between 
370 and 390 km/s (approx.) throughout the UT day today. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) remained close to the normal value for most of the 
time today showing minor fluctuations on both sides of the 
normal value at times- staying slightly southwards for 
relatively longer periods. Solar activity is expected to 
remain at very lo to low levels during the next three days. 
The effect of the coronal hole, that is currently taking a 
geoeffective position, may start to strengthen the solar 
wind stream from 19 April. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1222 3211
      Learmonth            7   1212 3312
      Culgoora             7   1222 3211
      Canberra             7   1222 3211
      Hobart               7   1222 3211
      Casey(Ant)          10   2332 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1221 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Apr    10    Quiet to unsettled 
20 Apr    12    Mostly unsettled, active periods possible. 
21 Apr    12    Mostly unsettled, active periods possible. 
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind 
stream from a coronal hole the geomagnetic activity may 
rise from quiet to unsettled levels on 19 April. A further 
rise in geomagnetic activity to mostly unsettled with 
possibility of active periods is possible on 20 and 21 April. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
at low and mid latitude locations during the next three 
days. However, minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions 
may be observed on high latitudes during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Apr    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of 
      minor to significant degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Apr    27    near predicted monthly values 
20 Apr    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
21 Apr    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most northern Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF 
conditions may be observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions during 
this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 403 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    70900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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