[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 18 09:52:22 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low during the last
24 hours. Region 755(S11E75) produced three C-class
flares- the largest being a C4.6 flare at 2107UT. This
flare was associated to a Type II radio burst and a
partial halo CME with an estimated shock speed of
602 km/s. This CME is not earthward directed. Another
C3.3 flare from the same region, observed at 0144UT was
also associated to a TypeII radio burst and a partial
halo CME with a shock speed of 690 km/s. This CME is
also not earthward directed. The solar wind speed
decreased from 430 to 380 km/s by 0400UT today and
then showed some increase. The solar wind speed remained
mostly between 400 and 410 km/s during the rest of the
day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the normal value
for most of the time today showing minor fluctuations
on both sides of the normal value at times. Solar activity
is expected to remain at low levels during the next three
days. Another coronal hole is taking geoeffective position
and it may start to strengthen the solar wind stream from
19 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 1220 1010
Learmonth 2 1111 1010
Culgoora 1 1110 0000
Canberra 2 1210 1000
Hobart 3 1220 1010
Casey(Ant) 12 233- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 3211 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 6 Quiet
19 Apr 10 Quiet to unsettled
20 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
quiet during the next 24 hours and may rise to unsettled
levels on 19 April due to the effect of a coronal hole
induced high speed solar wind stream. The geomagnetic
activity may rise up further on 20 April to unsettled
levels with possibility of active periods due to the effect
of this coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal at low and mid latitude locations during the
next three days. However, minor to mild degradations
in HF conditions may be observed on high latitudes on
19 and 20 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 30 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%.
19 Apr 27 near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most northern Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions on
19 and 20 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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