[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Sep             28 Sep             29 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions nominal over past 24 hours. Solar 
region 675 S8E62 has produced little activity. Solar region 673 
S13W70 shows decline as it reaches the western solar limb. This 
morning Culgoora H-alpha imagery shows some emmission N14E82. 
This appears to be a new region. Background solar xray flux from 
US NOAA SEC GOES 12 satellite remains quiet low at around the 
A6 level. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 667 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 27 Sep. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1100 0012
      Darwin               1   1100 0113
      Townsville           1   1100 0012
      Learmonth            1   1000 0113
      Culgoora             0   0000 0011
      Canberra             0   0000 0012
      Hobart               0   0000 0011
      Casey(Ant)           6   3230 0022
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   0102 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Sep     5    Quiet 
28 Sep     5    Quiet 
29 Sep    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet conditions for the next three days, 
27 day recurrence patterns suggest unsettled periods 29 Sep. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Sep    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    38600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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