[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 26 09:31:02 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Region
673 is now approaching the west limb and shows signs of decay.
A west-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 25/1842.
This appears to have originated from a backside event and should
not be geoeffective.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 667 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 27 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 1102 2112
Darwin 4 1112 2111
Townsville 3 0112 2112
Learmonth 2 0002 2112
Culgoora 2 0002 2012
Canberra 5 0003 3112
Hobart 4 0103 3000
Casey(Ant) 7 3--2 2112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3212 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 5 Quiet
27 Sep 5 Quiet
28 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 400 to 370 km/s over
the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
turned mildly southward for some hours over the mid-part of the
UT day, at which time isolated unsettled periods were observed
at high latitudes only. Geomagnetic conditions at low to mid
latitudes were quiet. Expect continuing mostly quiet conditions
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable overnight and post-dawn depressions observed
at low latitudes. Periods of localised disturbance observed at
high latitudes. Variable conditions possible at low latitudes,
especially during local night. Conditions should be mostly normal
for mid-high latitudes over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Variable overnight and post-dawn depressions.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 40 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 40 Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overnight and post-dawn depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus region. Mild overnight spread-F observed S Aus region. Widespread
and persistent spread-F observed Antarctic region. Expect mostly
normal HF conditions over the next few days at mid to high latitudes.
Variable overnight and post-dawn conditions possible at low latitudes.
Isolated periods of localised disturbance possible at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 56000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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