[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 25 09:34:08 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Region
673 is the only sunspot group on the visible disk, and it maintains
a relatively simple magnetic configuration. Old region 667 is
due to return on Sep 27. It produced one M-class flare on the
previous rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 2112 1212
Darwin 4 2111 1213
Townsville 4 2111 2212
Learmonth 4 2112 1213
Culgoora 3 1102 1211
Canberra 4 1112 2211
Hobart 4 1111 2212
Casey(Ant) 10 3-33 1222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 4422 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep 5 Quiet
27 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 450 to 400 km/s over
the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
showed minor fluctuations about neutral. Observed geomagnetic
conditions were quiet to unsettled at high latitudes and quiet
at mid to low latitudes. Expect continuing mostly quiet conditions
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions around local dawn observed at low latitudes.
Periods of localised disturbance observed at high latitudes.
Conditions should be mostly normal for mid-low latitudes, with
improving HF conditions for high latitudes, over the next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
with periods of localised disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 45 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal to improving HF conditions over
the next few days. Night-time enhancements, and minor depressions
about local dawn, possible at low latitudes. Isolated periods
of localised disturbance possible at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 65400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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