[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions nominal over past 24 hours, mildly 
increasing from 300 to 380km/sec due to apparent weak 27 day 
recurrent pattern. The area of H-alpha emission reported yesterday, 
at N14E82, appears to have dulled. Learmonth GONG images show no 
spots associated at this location. Other regions little change. 
No significant solar activity over past 24 hours. Solar activity 
forecast eased to very low. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1111 2222
      Darwin               4   1111 2222
      Townsville           3   0011 2223
      Learmonth            4   1111 2221
      Culgoora             4   1011 2222
      Canberra             3   0001 2222
      Hobart               5   1101 2231
      Casey(Ant)           9   3332 2211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1121 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep     5    Quiet 
29 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Sep     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Generally quiet conditions for the next three days, 
27 day recurrence patterns suggest unsettled periods 29 Sep. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Sep    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    33100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"