[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 15 09:54:09 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5/1F 0930UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Region 672 produced a medium-duration M1.5 level flare
reaching maximum X-Ray intensity at 0930UT. An associated type
II radio sweep with estimated shock velocity 1018 km/s was reported.
LASCO C3 imagery shows a 90-degree halo CME in the south-eastern
solar quadrant. There is a possibility of a glancing-blow geoeffective
impact from this event on Sep 16. A small southern-hemisphere
coronal hole is now in geoeffective position in the western hemisphere.
There is a chance of further isolated M-class activity from region
672.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 21 3343 4445
Darwin 20 3343 4435
Townsville 23 3343 4535
Learmonth 29 3344 5545
Culgoora 23 3343 4535
Canberra 21 3343 4445
Hobart 21 3343 4445
Casey(Ant) 30 4-44 4454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 SEP :
Townsville 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth 49 (Unsettled)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 120 (Major storm)
Hobart 111 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2101 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Sep 25 active
17 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 13 September
and is current for interval 14-16 September. Following the shock
arrival late in the UT day Sep 13, active to minor storm intervals
have been observed at high latitudes, with unsettled to active
conditions at low to mid latitudes. Solar wind parameters remain
elevated at the time of report issue. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has exhibited moderate polarity
fluctuations throughout the UT day. Expect continuing unsettled
to active conditions on day one. There is a possibility of another
shock passage on day two resulting from a CME observed early
in the UT day Sep 14. This passage is likely to be a glancing
blow, resulting in disturbed conditions for about one day, with
conditions declining to mostly unsettled later on day three.
A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1523UT on 14 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 09 2004 2115UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Poor
16 Sep Normal Fair Fair-poor
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Overnight enhancements observed at low latitudes, followed
by minor post-dawn depressions. Generally reasonable HF conditions
observed at low to mid latitudes. Proton-PCA event in progress
at high latitudes, resulting in very poor HF conditions in that
region. The PCA should decline today. Possibility of a further
minor shock arrival on day two, resulting in continuing HF disturbances
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 55 about 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Sep 50 about 10% above predicted monthly values
17 Sep 50 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 13 September
and is current for interval 14-15 September. Overnight enhancements
observed again in Equatorial/N Aus region. Generally good HF
conditions observed at low to mid latitudes despite considerable
geomagnetic disturbance following the solar wind shock arrival
late on Sep 13. A proton-PCA event is in progress resulting in
poor HF conditions in the Antarctic region. Expect continuing
poor propagation conditions in Antarctic region, with the possibility
of a further minor shock arrival on day two. Propagation at low
to mid latitudes shows no sign of degradation at this stage.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 33900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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