[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 16 09:54:32 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Region 672 which is now centre disc, produced several
high B and low C class flares in the last 24 hours. Newly named
Region 673 produced one mid B class flare. A glancing blow from
the CME of 14th Sept is still possible during 16th Sept.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 3222 3324
Darwin 10 3222 3324
Townsville 7 2221 3224
Learmonth 9 3221 3324
Culgoora 8 2222 2323
Canberra 10 3222 3324
Hobart 9 3222 2323
Casey(Ant) 15 4442 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 SEP :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 95 (Minor storm)
Hobart 99 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 28 4445 4344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 25 active
17 Sep 20 active
18 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 13 September
and is current for interval 14-16 September. Following the shock
arrival late in the UT day Sep 13, active intervals have been
observed at high latitudes. Solar wind density has been slightly
above average, temperature is average, and velocity is slightly
elevated at 550km/sec. IMF Bz is oscillating within 5nT of zero
although total field values above 5nT suggests a significant
By component enhancing reconnection with the geomagnetic field.
There is a possibility of a shock passage on 16th Sept from a
CME observed early in the UT day Sep 14. This passage is likely
to be a glancing blow, resulting in disturbed conditions for
about one day, with conditions declining to mostly unsettled
later on day two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Fair-normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : Began at 2115UT 13/09, Ended at 0620UT 15/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
17 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Overnight pre-midnight enhancements observed again at
low latitudes, followed by post-dawn depressions. Proton-PCA
event at high latitudes ended around 0630UT and ionogram returns
reappeared in the second half of the day. Possibility of a further
minor shock arrival today resulting in continuing HF disturbances
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 45 near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overnight enhancements observed again in Equatorial/N
Aus region. Normal HF conditions observed at mid latitudes despite
declining geomagnetic disturbance following the solar wind shock
arrival late on Sep 13. The proton-PCA event at high latitudes
has ended although recovery of the ionosphere is still in progress
and conditions may remain poor if the minor shock arrival takes
effect today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 576 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 209000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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