[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 14 09:57:52 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION:* YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Only minor C-class flare activity was observed today,
from multiple solar regions. A shock passage was observed on
the ACE satellite platform following the M-class activity observed
at 12/00UT. Significantly elevated proton fluxes followed the
shock passage. There is a chance of further isolated M-class
activity from region 672.
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1934UT on 13
Sep.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
13/1755UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 1110 0044
Darwin 5 1110 0044
Townsville 5 1110 0044
Learmonth 6 0000 0054
Culgoora 4 1001 0044
Canberra 3 0000 0044
Hobart 3 0000 0043
Casey(Ant) 17 1231 2265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 1100 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 40 Minor storm
15 Sep 30 Active to Minor storm
16 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 13 September
and is current for interval 14-16 September. Solar wind parameters
remained at nominal values until a shock passage arrived at approximately
20UT. This shock is most likely the result of the M4 level flare
observed at 12/00UT. LASCO C3 imagery now available confirms
a fast full-halo CME associated with this event. Shock arrival
has occurred one day ahead of most predictions. Minor storm conditions
are expected on day one, possibly persisting into day two. A
mild coronal hole wind stream is anticipated to commence on day
two and will contribute to disturbances extending into day three.
A weak (28nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 2002UT on 13 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 09 2004 2115UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Fair Fair-Poor Poor(PCA)
15 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Overnight enhancements observed at low latitudes. Generally
enhanced conditions observed at all latitudes. Elevated geomagnetic
activity and proton flux following a solar wind shock arrival
late in the UT day Sep 13 may result in disturbed HF conditions
mainly at high latitudes on days one and two. Possible disturbances
continuing day three due to elevated solar wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 10-20% over most of the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Sep 30 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
16 Sep 30 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 13 September
and is current for interval 14-15 September. Overnight enhancements
observed again in Equatorial/N Aus region. Generally good HF
conditions observed at all latitudes until late in the UT day.
A shock passage in the solar wind has resulted in disturbed geomagnetic
conditions. Possible HF disturbances may result on days one and
two, persisting into day three mainly at high latitudes. Elevated
proton fluxes associated with the shock arrival have resulted
in increased absorption in the polar cap region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 28400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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