[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 13 09:59:07 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/2N 0057UT possible lower West Pacific
M4/-- 0139UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Region 672 (N05E049) produced an M4.8 level flare at
00UT. There was an associated type II radio sweep with shock
speed estimated at 800 km/s. Although LASCO imagery is incomplete
for the period, a full halo CME has been reported. Region 667,
near the west limb, produced a sympathetic impulsive M3 flare,
also with a Type II radio sweep at 0140UT. Shock speed for this
event is estimated at 870 km/s. Energetic electron fluence at
the ACE satellite platform increased by an order of magnitude
shortly after these events. A combined interplanetary shock from
these events is likely to reach the Earth late on Sep 14 to early
Sep 15. Region 672 has potential for further M-class flare activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 2210 0102
Darwin 3 2200 1211
Townsville 3 2200 0202
Learmonth 2 1210 0102
Culgoora 2 2200 0102
Canberra 2 2200 0102
Hobart 1 1200 0101
Casey(Ant) 7 3331 1102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 6 2001 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Sep 40 Minor storm
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal values. Observed
geomagnetic conditions in the Australasian region were quiet
at all latitudes. Expect continuing quiet conditions on day one.
An interplanetary shock resulting from M-class solar flare activity
early on Sep 12 is likely to reach the earth late on Sep 14 to
early Sep 15. Minor to major storm conditions are possible following
shock arrival. A small coronal hole is now at central solar merdian.
A recurrent high speed wind stream from this feature is due to
return on Sep 15 and should persist into Sep 16. The conbination
of solar wind features may result in generally disturbed geomagnetic
conditions for a few days from late Sep 14.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Sep Fair Fair-Poor Poor
COMMENT: Overnight enhancements observed at low latitudes. Generally
enhanced conditions observed at all latitudes. Mostly normal
HF conditions expected for day one and the first half of day
two. Expect disturbed HF conditions late day two and day three
due to geomagnetic disturbance resulting from recent solar flare
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 65 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
14 Sep 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Sep 20 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overnight enhancements observed again in Equatorial/N
Aus region. Spread-F with generally enhanced MUF conditions observed
Antarctic region. Generally enhanced propagation conditions observed
at all latitudes in the Australasian region. Mostly good HF conditions
expected on day one and the firast half of day two. Depressions/disturbances
possible late day two and into day three due to solar wind disturbances
resulting from recent solar flare activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 275 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 17600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list