[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Sep             13 Sep             14 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             100/48
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed over the past 
UT day. There is a chance of isolated M-class activity from Active 
Region 672. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   0010 1102
      Darwin               2   1110 1111
      Townsville           0   0010 0102
      Learmonth            0   0000 0001
      Culgoora             1   0010 1112
      Canberra             0   0000 1002
      Hobart               0   0000 1001
      Casey(Ant)           3   2110 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5   2112 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Sep     5    Quiet 
13 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal values. Observed 
geomagnetic conditions in the Australasian region were quiet 
at all latitudes. Expect continuing quiet conditions for the 
next few days, with the possibility of isolated unsettled periods 
at high latitudes on days two and three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significant overnight enhancements observed at low latitudes. 
Generally enhanced conditions observed at high latitudes. Mostly 
normal HF conditions expected for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Sep    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20-40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Sep    70    20 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
13 Sep    60    15 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
14 Sep    60    15 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Significant overnight enhancements observed again in 
Equatorial/N Aus region. Spread-F with generally enhanced MUF 
conditions observed Antarctic region. Generally enhanced propagation 
conditions observed at all latitudes in the Australasian region. 
Mostly good HF conditions expected for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    10600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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