[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Sep             12 Sep             13 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: Isolated C-class flare activity, mainly from active 
region 672, was observed over the past UT day. The largest was 
a medium-duration C6 level flare at 1600. Extensive loop prominence 
activity was observed again on the east limb, also in association 
with this region. Minor radio noise has been observed on the 
Culgoora Radiospectrograph for a few hours up to the time of 
report issue. There is a chance of isolated M-class activity 
from AR 672. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1111 0001
      Darwin               1   1111 0001
      Townsville           1   1111 0002
      Learmonth            0   0100 0002
      Culgoora             2   0212 0012
      Canberra             1   0102 0001
      Hobart               1   1102 0000
      Casey(Ant)           2   2211 0000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1101 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Sep     5    Quiet 
12 Sep     5    Quiet 
13 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal values. Observed 
geomagnetic conditions in the Australasian region were quiet 
at all latitudes. Expect continuing quiet conditions for the 
next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significant overnight enhancements observed at low latitudes. 
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Sep    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 10-20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Sep    60    15 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
12 Sep    60    15 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
13 Sep    60    15 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Significant overnight enhancements observed Equatorial 
region. Generally enhanced conditions observed at all latitudes 
in the region. Mild night-time spread-F observed SE Aus/NZ regions. 
Mostly good HF conditions expected for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    39700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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