[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Sep             05 Sep             06 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: Halo CME events observed during 3 September appear to 
be backside events and are not expected to be geoeffective. Solar 
wind velocity declined from 440 to 340km/sec over the UT day, 
with the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field near neutral. No signature of the mass ejection from the 
M1-flare event on 31 August has been observed. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1110 0111
      Darwin               2   1100 1112
      Townsville           2   1200 0112
      Learmonth            1   1100 0111
      Culgoora             2   1110 0111
      Canberra             1   1100 0102
      Hobart               2   2110 0101
      Casey(Ant)           6   3321 0110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2233 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Halo CME events observed during 3 September are not 
expected to be geoeffective. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
expected for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible at high latitudes. Generally 
good HF conditions expected at mid latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Sep    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
05 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    82600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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