[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Sep             06 Sep             07 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: The CME event observed during 4 September is not expected 
to be geoeffective. Solar wind velocity declined from 360 to 
300km/sec over the UT day, with the north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field near neutral. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 1002
      Darwin               3   1111 1113
      Townsville           2   1111 1013
      Learmonth            1   0111 0002
      Culgoora             1   1011 1001
      Canberra             1   1011 1001
      Hobart               1   0111 1001
      Casey(Ant)           4   2321 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   2110 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Sep     6    Quiet 
07 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Recent CME events are not expected to be geoeffective. 
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for the next few 
days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Sep    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly near predicted monthly values at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    54900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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