[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 3 09:19:11 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar region 667 (old 656) has been predominately quiet
over the past 24 hours. No other significant spots followed yesterdays
presumed leader spot of 667. At present a bipolar magnetic configuration
exists in and around the region. The positive polarity is unspotted.
This region does not appear bright in Culgoora Halpha imagery. Also,
GOES xray background flux remains low at around the B1 level.
There is a chance for isolated flare activity from this region.
Solar wind velocity declined from 480 to 440km/sec over the UT
day, with the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field near neutral. No signature of the mass ejection from the
recent M1 event has been observed. ACE precursor data, at present
does not show a increasing trend in flux count, indicating that
effects from this event will be minimal. A solar filament was
reported by USAF Hollaman observatory, and a review of SOHO C3
data showed no sign of a mass ejection.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 1121 1111
Darwin 4 2211 1112
Townsville 3 1111 1111
Learmonth 4 2221 0211
Culgoora 3 1121 1111
Canberra 3 1121 1201
Hobart 3 1121 1101
Casey(Ant) 4 ---2 1112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 3122 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 14 Unsettled, chance active periods.
04 Sep 10 Quiet to unsettled
05 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Generally unsettled conditions. No active periods observed
last 24 hours. 27 day recurrence patterns suggest a mild increase
in activity is possible 3 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible at high latitudes. Generally
good HF conditions expected at mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 35 near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 35 near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: In general regional MUFs expected to be near normal.
Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced local night hours,
southern Aus/NZ region tonight. A returning solar region may
cause increased chance of fadeouts on daylight HF circuits. No
activity as yet from this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 187000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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