[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 3 09:19:11 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep:  94/40

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Sep             04 Sep             05 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: Solar region 667 (old 656) has been predominately quiet 
over the past 24 hours. No other significant spots followed yesterdays 
presumed leader spot of 667. At present a bipolar magnetic configuration 
exists in and around the region. The positive polarity is unspotted. 
This region does not appear bright in Culgoora Halpha imagery. Also, 
GOES xray background flux remains low at around the B1 level. 
There is a chance for isolated flare activity from this region. 
Solar wind velocity declined from 480 to 440km/sec over the UT 
day, with the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field near neutral. No signature of the mass ejection from the 
recent M1 event has been observed. ACE precursor data, at present 
does not show a increasing trend in flux count, indicating that 
effects from this event will be minimal. A solar filament was 
reported by USAF Hollaman observatory, and a review of SOHO C3 
data showed no sign of a mass ejection. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1121 1111
      Darwin               4   2211 1112
      Townsville           3   1111 1111
      Learmonth            4   2221 0211
      Culgoora             3   1121 1111
      Canberra             3   1121 1201
      Hobart               3   1121 1101
      Casey(Ant)           4   ---2 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   3122 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Sep    14    Unsettled, chance active periods. 
04 Sep    10    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally unsettled conditions. No active periods observed 
last 24 hours. 27 day recurrence patterns suggest a mild increase 
in activity is possible 3 Sep. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible at high latitudes. Generally 
good HF conditions expected at mid latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Sep    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Sep    35    near predicted monthly values 
04 Sep    35    near predicted monthly values 
05 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: In general regional MUFs expected to be near normal. 
Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced local night hours, 
southern Aus/NZ region tonight. A returning solar region may 
cause increased chance of fadeouts on daylight HF circuits. No 
activity as yet from this region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   187000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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