[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 2 09:13:17 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Previously active solar region 656 now numbered 667
has returned to the south-east solar limb, with the presumed
leader spot visible on the solar disk. Solar activity forecast
has been mildly elevated for this reason. The region "plume" of
old 656 is visible in US SEC SXI (soft xray imager) and is the
likely soure of a very minor B class flare late in the UT day.
However, background solar xray flux levels have not increased
with the return of this region, and returning region flare rates
in general for this cycle has been lower than that of the previous solar
cycle. Together, this may imply that activity from this region
will be reduced for this rotation. Apart from this returning
region the solar disk is spotless. Solar wind speed moderately
elevated at 450km/sec over past 24 hours, and the north south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been neutral.
The origin of the elevated wind speed is unclear. ACE EPAM low
energy ion data channels whose flux levels can be a precursor
to shock arrival show no increase, and this suggets that mass
ejection effects from recent M1 solar flare/mass ejection will
be minimal.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 2222 1222
Darwin 5 2221 1222
Townsville 4 2221 1112
Learmonth 4 1211 1222
Culgoora 4 0212 1---
Canberra 5 2222 1212
Hobart 6 2222 2212
Casey(Ant) 9 3--3 1222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 28 6454 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 14 Unsettled, chance active periods.
03 Sep 14 Unsettled, chance active periods.
04 Sep 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Generally unsettled conditions. There is an outside
chance for active periods on 2 Sep due to recent solar flare
/mass ejection. Also, 27 day recurrence patterns suggest a mild
increase in active 3 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible at high latitudes. Generally
good HF conditions expected at mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 35 near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 35 near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: In general regional MUFs expected to be near normal.
Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced local night hours,
southern Aus/NZ region next two day. A returning solar region
may cause increased chance of fadeouts on daylight HF circuits.
No activity as yet from this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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