[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 1 09:57:18 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0538UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with region 663 producing an M1.4 Class event at 0525UT. A TypeII
radio sweep was observed on the Culgoora Spectrograph in conjunction
with the M-Class event and LASCO C3 imagery indicated a CME which
has could produce glancing blow effects in 2-3days time. Solar
wind speed climbed from 400km/s at the beginning of the UT day
to 450km/s at 0500UT, at which it remained so untill 1650UT where
it increased again to peak at 550km/s before falling to 475km/s
at the time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was southward from 0000UT
to 0630UT with a maximum of -12nT after which it then oscillated
between +/-6nT for the remainder of the day. Region 663 is approaching
the west limb and holds the potential for further C-Class events.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 656 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 1 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 14 3343 2323
Darwin 12 3333 2324
Townsville 17 3444 2323
Learmonth 13 3333 2333
Culgoora 16 3344 0---
Canberra 17 3444 2324
Hobart 17 3344 3323
Casey(Ant) 17 3442 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 67 (Active)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 34 3255 5445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 18 active
02 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
03 Sep 18 active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Active
over the last 24 hours as the glancing blow from the arrival
of a CME from the Eruptive Prominence on 27/8 continued. Conditions
are expected to remain at Quiet to Active levels for the next
2 days, with the chance of further elevated geomagnetic conditions
on days 2-3 of this forecast from the possible glancing blow
effects of a CME from the M1.4 Class that occured today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions over most regions are possible
for the next 24 hours as elevated geomagnetic conditions persist.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
03 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 31 August
and is current for interval 31 August to 1 September. Depressed
conditions expected for the next 24hours for most AUS/NZ regions
as elevated geomagnetic conditions continue. Conditions are expected
to improve after this period but with the chance of further disturbances
in 2-3 days time with the possible arrival of another CME glancing
blow.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 13500 K Bz: -10 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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