[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 30 08:42:05 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:**YELLOW** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: A small coronal hole may cause a mild increase in solar
wind speed 30-31 Oct. The signature of this coronal hole is visible
in US ACE solar wind speed data, rising from 300 km/sec to 380km/sec
over the UT day. Bz fluctuated southward later in the Ut day.
The sun has been mildly active over the past 24 hours. However,
the recent increasing trend in solar background xray flux has
levelled off at the B4 level. Several minor C class events were
observed over the past 24 hours. Solar region 693 (S14E48) produced
these C class flares. Solar region 687 (N13W47) only produced
a very minor B xray class flare, and is in decay.Isolated M class
flaring is possible from 693.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 1102 3232
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 6 1002 3233
Learmonth 7 0002 3332
Culgoora 1 100- ----
Canberra 6 0003 2232
Hobart 5 0003 2222
Casey(Ant) 9 2322 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 OCT :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
31 Oct 12 Unsettled
01 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: 27 day recurrent patterns suggest active periods possible
on 30 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Fair-Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected for today and
possibly day 2 for high latitudes, due to mild increase in solar
wind speed from a coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 80 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
31 Oct 50 near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
today. A mild degradation in HF conditions for southern Aus/NZ
region may be experienced on 31 Oct. This may reduce the current
enhanced conditions (relative to the monthly T index of 30) to
near predicted monthly values. Effects are expected to be minimal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 24000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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