[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 29 09:13:39 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Increased type III activity observed on Culgoora Radiospectrograph
since dawn this morning. Background solar xray flux from GOES12
satellite shows a mildly increasing trend also. Emmission probably
from solar region 693 in south-east solar quadrant. This region
produced several very minor flares over the past 24 hours. Solar
region 691 in the northeast solar quadrant produced a single
minor flare. Low level M class flare activity possible from both
693 and 687 which is located in the northwest solar quadrant.
693 appears the most active at present, with the brightest plage
visible in Culgoora H-alpha imagery. Solar wind speed has declined
from 380 to 300 km/sec over the past 24 hours. A minor discontinuity
observed in the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field(Bz) at around 18UT. Solar wind speed is expected to show
a mild increase on 30 October, due to a small coronal hole visible
to the west of central meridian in SOHO EIT284 satellite imagery.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 2100 0011
Darwin 2 2100 0---
Townsville 2 2100 0121
Learmonth 1 2100 0012
Culgoora 1 1100 0011
Canberra 1 1100 0012
Hobart 1 1100 0011
Casey(Ant) 6 3321 0011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 OCT :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0001 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 5 Quiet
30 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
31 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected today. However,
27 day recurrent patterns suggest active periods possible on
30 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 85 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Oct 85 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Oct 60 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
at least the next day. A mild degradation in HF conditions for
southern Aus/NZ region may be experienced on 31 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 41900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list