[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 31 09:44:01 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3/SF 0333UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4/SF 0618UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3/1N 0928UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X1/SF 1146UT probable all European
M5/SN 1633UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar region 691 (N14W21) became unexpectedly flare
active over the past 24 hours. This region produced several impulse
xray events, including the X1,M4 and M3 events. Two type II radio
sweep events were observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph,
in asscoaition with the M3 and M4 events. The M3 had an associated
speed of 800km/sec, the M4 1800km/sec , but M4 sweep interpretation
was difficult. The X1 and M5 event occurred in our local night and were
impulsive. US SEC reported that the X1 event was associated with Type
II and IV radio sweeps, implying a coronal mass ejection. SEC also
reports that the M5 event was associated with Type II radio sweep with a
speed of 1054km/sec. The SOHO/LASCO space based coronagraph C3 imagery shows a
westward directed CME at around 16UT. This may imply that any earlier CME
events were very faint, or did not escape the Sun. Also, the very short
duration of these xray events (including the X1), may reduce the level of
induced geomagnetic activity. Event data suggests that at least two shocks may
arrive in the first half of the UT day on 02 Nov. If the faster shock speed
is used for the M4 event, a shock may arrive on 01 Nov. A minor proton enhancement
was observed from around 7UT at the 10Mev level. The flare origin
of the protons is unclear. Further flaring from solar regions
691, 693 remains possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 3333 2323
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 12 3333 2322
Learmonth 13 3333 3323
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 13 2334 2323
Hobart 15 3334 3323
Casey(Ant) 19 4533 2323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 0013 3231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 12 Unsettled
01 Nov 20 active
02 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: Coronal hole induce active periods did not eventuate
over the past 24 hours. However, coronal mass ejection(s) may
induce activity 01-02 Nov. Activity level reduced due to short
duration of solar events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : None, 10Mev flux enhancement in progress following
flare activity.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Nov Normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions expected for late
01 and 02 Nov at high latitudes, due to recent coronal mass ejection.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 70 near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
02 Nov 25 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are now expected
for today, as coronal hole induced overnight geomagnetic activity
was less than expected.A solar coronal mass ejection is expected
to cause degraded conditions late 02-03 Nov for southern Aus/NZ
region only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 38200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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