[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 22 09:46:08 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar region 687 has produced considerable C-class flare
activity over the past 24 hours. Recent associated CME activity
does not appear to be Earthward directed. Solar regions 687 and
682 have the possibility of M-class flare activity. Solar wind
speeds have declined slowly over the past 24 hours from approximately
460km/s down to 400km/s. Mildly elevated solar wind speeds are
possible for the next day or two as coronal holes rotate out
of geoeffective positions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 3332 0012
Darwin 5 3221 1113
Townsville 7 2332 0112
Learmonth 5 3222 0012
Culgoora 6 2331 0022
Canberra 6 2331 0021
Hobart 6 2331 0012
Casey(Ant) 14 4443 1012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 60 (Unsettled)
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 1331 4412
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active
periods possible.
23 Oct 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active
periods possible.
24 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
the next days with isolated active periods possible as coronal
holes rotate out of geoeffective positions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF propagation conditions possible
at times for 22-23 October in association with forecast mildly
elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
23 Oct 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
24 Oct 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF propagation conditions possible
at times for 22-23 October for high latitudes in association
with forecast mildly elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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