[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1N    0811UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: The CME observed in association with the M2-flare from 
region 687 on 22 October does not appear to be Earthward directed 
and is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar region 687 has 
the chance of producing further M-class flare activity. Solar 
wind speeds have remained around 400km/s and are expected to 
decline further over the next few days as coronal holes rotate 
out of geoeffective positions. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 2112
      Darwin               4   2211 1212
      Townsville           4   2211 2113
      Learmonth            4   2201 2213
      Culgoora             4   2201 2113
      Canberra             4   1211 2112
      Hobart               4   1211 2112
      Casey(Ant)          11   -4-2 2221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2331 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 
the next days. CMEs observed over the last few days are not expected 
to be geoeffective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mostly normal too good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Oct    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct    55    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Oct    55    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
25 Oct    55    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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