[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 21 09:45:11 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 1051UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: The newly emerging AR687 on the eastern limb produced
an M2 class flare at 1054UT with an associated CME that does
not appear to be Earth directed. AR682 produced several B and
C class flares and a new region AR688 was named. Solar wind speed
increased velocity from 380 km/s during the day to 450 km/s,
possibly due to the effect of a coronal hole. Solar wind temperature
and density were average. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) oscillated between -5nT and +5nT with extended
periods both northwards and southwards. A small coronal hole
which has recently appeared (not recurrent) is at the solar central
meridian and is expected to be effective in 3 days, possibly
producing isolated active levels. Enhanced solar wind speeds
currently observed may be due to another coronal hole already
in the western solar hemisphere or an early effect of the new
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 2332 3313
Darwin 8 2321 3213
Townsville 9 2321 3312
Learmonth 9 2322 3313
Culgoora 12 2331 4322
Canberra 13 2332 4322
Hobart 14 2341 4323
Casey(Ant) 12 34-3 2213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 OCT :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0101 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 7 Quiet to unsettled
22 Oct 5 Quiet to unsettled
23 Oct 5 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Sustained periods of IMF Bz southwards will possibly
elevate conditions above the quiet state due to merging of the
solar IMF and geomagnetic fields. Isolated active periods possible
from 23 Oct due to the coronal hole currently located near the
solar central meridian.Elevated solar wind speeds currently observed
may indicate an early onset of coronal hole induced disturbed
conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded propagation conditions possible 23 Oct in association
with forecast geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 45 Minor enhancements throughout the UT day.
22 Oct 45 minor enhancements throughout the UT day.
23 Oct 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhancements of foF2 were observed at near equatorial
latitudes near local midnight and depletions prior to dawn. Slightly
polewards of equatorial latitudes this effect had dissipated.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 73900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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