[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 04

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Oct             21 Oct             22 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed commenced at a low velocity of 320 
km/s and increased during the day to 380 km/s by 17UT. Temperature 
was average and density was low but increasing. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was mostly 
zero and tending to northwards in the second half of the day. 
A small coronal hole which has recently appeared (not recurrent) 
is at the solar central meridian and is expected to be effective 
in 4 days, possibly producing isolated active levels. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1111 2312
      Darwin               5   1111 2312
      Townsville           5   1111 2322
      Learmonth            4   1001 2312
      Culgoora             4   0001 2312
      Canberra             4   0111 2311
      Hobart               3   0111 2211
      Casey(Ant)           9   3331 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 OCT : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            47   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0001 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Oct     6    Quiet 
22 Oct     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible on 23 Oct due to the 
coronal hole currently located near the solar central meridian. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded propagation conditions possible 23 Oct in association 
with forecast geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Oct    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Oct    50    minor enhancements throughout the UT day. 
21 Oct    40    minor enhancements throughout the UT day. 
22 Oct    40    minor enhancements throughout the UT day. 
COMMENT: Enhancements were observed at low latitudes near local 
midnight and an hour or two later slightly polewards. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 302 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    15900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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